Letter to the editor

Show the evidence; don't just say it's there

Posted 8/16/25

On 8/5/2025 a reader responded with a Letter to the Editor, ( https://www.riverreporter.com/stories/sticking-to-the-facts,210267 ),

to my My View, titled "Stick to the Facts" ( …

This item is available in full to subscribers.

Letter to the editor

Show the evidence; don't just say it's there

Posted Saturday, August 16, 2025 10:56 am

On 8/5/2025 a reader responded with a Letter to the Editor, (https://www.riverreporter.com/stories/sticking-to-the-facts,210267),

to my My View, titled "Stick to the Facts" (https://riverreporter.com/stories/stick-to-the-facts,207417?.)

I submitted data published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on temperatures and precipitation in Sullivan County, NY for the past 130 years—since the year 1895.

This data shows absolutely no trend for the period of 130 years either in temperatures or

in precipitation. I submitted this in response to the article titled "Water, water everywhere" (https://www.riverreporter.com/stories/water-water-everywhere-how-extreme-weather-is-changing-new-yorks-farming-industry,205570)

that claimed a deluge in Sullivan County, NY, with a great negative effect on agriculture

in the region.

The author of the response makes two errors:

1. He breaks down the 130-year history into three parts and claims trends within those three parts.

This is a typical unscientific approach to historical data by which one can confirm any hypothesis

he wants to.

For instance, the reader claims a cooling trend in the period from 1955 to 1965. If the reader was,

say, in the year 1965 and followed his precept by using the data for the period form 1955 to 1965,

the reader could have justifiably claim the cooling and drying period.

Except the reader would have been wrong by basing his conclusion on a short period of time, while the historical data for the past 130 years shows no trend, no warming and no increase in precipitation.

2. The biggest falsity is the reader's claim that the temperature in Sullivan County, NY has already increased by 4 deg. F. And he claims without evidence that that he "knows" the 4 deg. F increase in temperatures is mimicked by a similar temperature increases in the neighboring counties, in the New York State as a whole, and in the entire United States.

He further justifies his belief in the temperature increase on the order of 4 deg. F by saying that he is used to seeing such temperature increases in the media. And that is where his problem lies. Here, the reader's belief in 4 deg. F increase in temperatures remains in the realm of the "Emperor's New Clothes."

The reason is that even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations in

Geneva, Switzerland did not dare to claim more than the maximum of 1.8 deg. F increase in

temperatures on the Earth and not merely for the past 130 years but for the past 200 years since

the inception of the industrial age.

Ivan Orisek

Forestburgh, NY