Forecasters disagree about coming winter

Posted 8/21/12

REGION — There’s no question that last year’s winter was one for the record books, with temperature records falling all across the eastern United States and here in the Northeast, while most of …

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Forecasters disagree about coming winter

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REGION — There’s no question that last year’s winter was one for the record books, with temperature records falling all across the eastern United States and here in the Northeast, while most of the rest of the planet experienced above-normal temperatures. In fact, temperatures were so far above normal for most of the planet that by the end of August climate scientists were projecting that 2015 will be the warmest year since record taking began in 1880. Coming in right behind this year is 2014, which will then become the second warmest year on record.

Of course, global climate change does not mean that all regions will be getting warmer all of the time, as residents of the Upper Delaware Valley can attest, and the question that concerns many of us who will be staying in the Upper Delaware Valley through the frozen months is this: will this year be as bad as last year in terms of temperature and snowfall? The Farmer’s Almanac predicts that 2016 will be every bit as bad as 2015. “It’s like winter déjà vu,” said editor Peter Geiger, adding “Last year our bitterly cold, shivery forecasts came true in many states including the 23 eastern states that experienced one of their top-10 coldest Februarys on record. This year many of these same states may want to get a jump start now and stock up on lots of winter survival gear: sweaters, long johns and plenty of firewood.” The almanac says its forecasts are based on a secret formula dating back to 1818 that includes information on tides, sunspots and various other factors.

Those looking for a second opinion can turn to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) the parent organization of the National Weather Service, which has a different view. For December, January and February, NOAA predicts that there is an equal chance that the Northeast U.S. will experience temperatures that are slightly warmer or slightly colder than average. As for precipitation, NOAA projects that there is a slightly greater chance for more than average. This projection is based in part on the fact that there is an El Niño condition in the Pacific Ocean just now, which is expected to last through the winter, and this generally brings warmer weather to the northern tier of states, and cooler temperatures to the south. The El Niño is also expected to bring rain to drought-stricken southern California. If NOAA is right, this winter may provide more opportunities for partaking in winter outdoor activities rather than staying indoors huddled by the wood stove or air source heat pump.

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