Be prepared

“Nothing lasts forever.”

Such was the assertion of geophysicist M. King Hubbert who, in 1956, predicted that petroleum production in the United States would peak between 1965 and 1970. His findings were met with the criticism and disdain often reserved for prophets delivering an unpopular message. Yet his prediction proved true in 1970, and in 1975 the National Academy of Sciences acknowledged that their previous, more optimistic estimates were incorrect and corroborated Hubbert’s calculations.

In 2005, oilman T. Boone Pickens stated that worldwide oil production was very close to peaking. The U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Energy Watch Group maintain that conventional oil production worldwide reached its peak late in 2006.

Optimists claim that the global decline will begin by 2020 or later, and that major investments in alternatives will occur soon. In this scenario, people in nations that consume most of the world’s fossil fuel will not have to make major lifestyle changes.

On the other hand, pessimists contend that even if all alternative energy technologies were implemented globally at this very moment, they could not replace the world’s current rate of fossil fuel consumption. Their scenario includes global depression, collapse of global industrial civilization, and large population declines within a short period (a polite way of saying that lots of people will die).

Because mainstream media consistently refuses to report any news of significant import, most people are unaware of the impending crisis. The planet’s population seems to be rolling merrily along, consuming petroleum for transportation, agriculture, plastic bags and Barbie dolls, under the illusion that oil and gas will always be available. We seem to have already forgotten that gasoline reached $4 a gallon in 2008 (even that is relatively cheap), a price spike which set off a global recession. But if we look take a hard look at reality, it is clear that we are running out of cheap oil. And those who believe that “natural” gas (there is nothing natural about it) will save the day fail to understand that it is just another limited fossil fuel.

Some of our neighbors are spreading the word about peak oil and encouraging us to take responsibility for our future. They are promoting Transition Towns (TT), a movement that began in 2005 in Ireland. The TT model encourages us to “act collectively” at this moment to adapt to life without abundant, cheap oil so that our towns are resilient in the face of dramatically lower energy availability. TT state that “by unleashing the collective genius of those around us to creatively and proactively design our energy descent, we can build ways of living that are more connected, more enriching and that recognize the biological limits of our planet.”

Rather than envisioning apocalypse, TT promotes the radical idea that “When life without fossil fuels becomes a reality we not only survive, we thrive.”

Their contention that life could actually improve in a future of lower energy may seem unimaginable. But imagine this: a revitalized local economy, a more tightly knit community, locally and community produced food, transportation alternatives, a reconnection with the natural world, a healthier lifestyle, less stress and increased community autonomy.

Concerned people are meeting to discuss how to implement the TT ideas locally. Interested in becoming part of the local movement? Attend a showing of the 50-minute film “In Transition” on Wednesday, April 28 at the Wayne County Public Library in Honesdale, PA at 5:00 p.m. A discussion will follow. You may also attend a meeting of Greener Honesdale: A Transition Initiative on either Thursday, April 8 or May 6 from 5:00 to 7:00 p.m. at the Chamber of Commerce meeting room, 32 Commercial Street. RSVP at 570/253-8475.