DRBC flood model surrounded by controversy

By Elaine Reichart

One of the many things to be thankful for this holiday season is the three-year plus absence of flooding along the Delaware River. However, the Delaware River and the headwater reservoirs are still not managed for flood protection, causing the reservoirs to continue to fill and spill, adding waters to an already swollen river at the worst of times.

There is no reason for this. New York City water consumption is less than 1946 levels, yet daily reservoir releases down the river are at historic lows. Because NYC is hoarding water, we cannot afford five- to 10-inch rainstorms. We would have reservoir spills of an incredible magnitude. The Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) told the public to “wait for the Flood Analysis Model” to “know” if the reservoirs contributed to the flooding.

After a delay of over one year, the long awaited software program was scheduled for release on Tuesday, December 15. Unfortunately, the model is surrounded by controversy, largely stemming from the questionable algorithms built into the model.

The original objective was for funding to produce a working model with a web portal public interface. What happened to what was originally promised? Over $785,000 of taxpayer money was spent on this project; what does the DRBC have to show for it?

Because of all the shenanigans and delays, what was the final cost of this project?

What assumptions were made about NYC reservoir operations? Does the core logic contain the same assumptions of NYC operations that are used in the Flexible Flow Management Plan (FFMP)? Aren’t these the same operational assumptions that have been used since 1983? Many people suspect it is these operational protocols that are the root cause of the reservoir-induced flooding on the Delaware. If this is true, then how can any model containing this faulty logic be used to evaluate past reservoir impacts to flooding? Any flood waters that the model will indicate coming from the reservoirs will be vastly underestimated. In any software modeling, isn’t it fundamentally true that garbage in equals garbage out?

Even if this model were perfect, the DRBC appears to have no intention of using this model to provide safety voids in the reservoirs. So why did the taxpayers spend $785,000 on this thing? Of what value is this model?

Will the DRBC release the design specifications to the public? Will the design assumptions be released so that the public can know if what we paid for is worth the paper the output can be printed on?

How can anyone have any confidence in what the agencies involved have been doing without full transparency of all the design assumptions?

The truth as to what this model is and how it was put together, is suspect. Concerned organizations such as the Aquatic Conservation Unlimited, the North Delaware River Watershed Conservancy, Friends of the Upper Delaware and Drowning on the Delaware insist that it should be independently verified. There is a serious lack of trust of the DRBC on how they manage the river and the reservoirs. If this model has been designed along the same parameters as the previous reservoir management operational protocols (and we have been told it has), the accuracy of this model is in serious doubt.

[Elaine Reichart is the president of Aquatic Conservation Unlimited.]