Northeast climate change report

Skiing, maple syrup, trout at risk

By FRITZ MAYER

NORTHEAST U.S. — If the federal government is to be believed, ski operations in the Southern Catskills and Poconos are already at risk of not being able to survive, and the situation will become worse in the coming decades because of global climate change.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program, which is comprised of 13 federal agencies such as the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Commerce, released a report on June 16, outlining some of the expected impacts of climate change.

According to the report, ski resorts in the Northeast must have certain conditions to remain viable: the average length of the ski season must be at least 100 days, there must be a good possibility of being open during the profitable week between Christmas and the New Year, and there must be enough cold nights for snow-making operations to be successful.

Those conditions are becoming less likely in the Upper Delaware River Valley as the years pass and, if humans keep using fossil fuels at a high rate, only one skiing area in Maine will be viable by the end of the century.

The report says, “Warmer winters will shorten the average ski season, increase artificial snowmaking requirements and drive up operating costs. While snowmaking can enhance the prospects for ski resort success, it requires a great deal of water and energy, as well as very cold nights, which are becoming less frequent.

Prospects don’t look much better for ice fishing and snow mobiling.

According to the report, temperatures in the Northeast have risen by two degrees Fahrenheit since 1970, with temperatures in the winter rising twice that much. Over the next several decades, temperatures are projected to rise by as much as an additional four degrees in winter and 3.5 degrees in summer.

The report says these temperature hikes will lead to more flooding in the Northeast, with more heavy precipitation events. Conversely, it will also lead to more drought events and, at the most extreme range of predictions, the Catskill Mountains could experience a short drought every summer.

Increased temperatures are also expected to have impacts in several areas of agriculture. In the dairy industry, for instance, cows will be expected to produce less milk in the summer months because of heat stress. The report says that milk production could drop by up to 20 percent during the summer months, which for this area will include many more days with temperatures above 90 degrees and some days above 100 degrees.

Also, with the warming temperatures, maple syrup production will move increasingly northward, and under the most extreme scenarios, will no longer be viable in this area by the end of the century.

The production of some fruits will also be altered. Some varieties of apples and blueberries, for instance, will no longer thrive in the region by the end of the century.

Also fish populations will be changed. The report says, “Pennsylvania is predicted to lose 50 percent of its trout habitat in the coming decades.”

There is, however, some good news in the report. With the warming temperatures, for instance, comes an extended growing season in the Northeast. Also municipalities will be required to spread less salt on the roads in the winter to mitigate ice and snow conditions. But the good news is no match for the gloom contained in most of the predictions.

The report says that some additional warming is inevitable because of the amount of fossil fuels that have already been burned on the planet. But the severity of conditions at the end of this century will very much depend on the decisions humans make now about the use of fossil fuels going forward.

Go to globalchange.gov to see the report.