Kunstler’s spooky future vision

Keynote speaker at Renaissance conference

By FRITZ MAYER

UNITED STATES — If you’re already frightened by news of the reeling economy and the millions of jobs lost around the country, you might want to avoid the writings of James Howard Kunstler. He predicts, for example, that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will sink from its current range, hovering near 8,000, to about 4,000 by the end of the year.

He also predicts that this may be the year when many citizens of the country begin to feel the effects of being shut off from the endless easy credit that has allowed so many to live beyond their means for so long. He says the same will be true for states, counties and other municipalities, who will be forced into bankruptcies and the resulting reduction in services will lead to negative consequences such as increased crime or widespread health emergencies.

On the upside, however, he also offers a vision of how Americans will be forced to make major changes in the world and to live in ways that will be sustainable.

Kunstler, author of the books, “The Long Emergency” and “The Geography of Nowhere,” is convinced that the role of the automobile is soon to be drastically reduced because of the end of the era of cheap oil. And he does not buy into the notion that any form of alternative fuel will save the day. In a commentary posted on his website, kunstler.com, he writes, “The great wish for ‘alternative’ liquid fuels (bio fuels, algae excreta) will never be anything more than a wish at the scales required, and the parallel wish to keep all our cars running by other means?hydrogen fuel cells, electric motors is equally idle and foolish. We cannot face the mandate of reality, which is to do everything possible to make our living places walkable and connect them with public transit.”

One of the ideas that runs through his work, and is evidenced in the documentary film “The End of Suburbia” in which he appears, is that Americans have created living situations, specifically sprawling suburban areas, that are quickly running up against the realities of diminishing oil supplies. We won’t be able to afford to maintain these suburban areas where life depends on shipping food thousands of miles, and requires a car to get to the drug store, the doctor and every other place people need to go. Kunstler says that in order to avoid a major social convulsion, Americans need to change, and the change needs to be dramatic and quick.

He writes, “We have to get off of petro-agriculture and grow our food locally, at a smaller scale, with more people working on it and fewer machines. This is an enormous project, which implies change in everything from property allocation to farming methods to new social relations. But if we don't focus on it right away, a lot of Americans will end up starving, and rather soon.”

If you’d like to hear some of his theories and opinions in person, you can show up to the 2009 Winter Conference and Expo to be held by Sullivan Renaissance. Kunstler is the keynote speaker. The conference will be held on Saturday, February 21 at the CVI building in Ferndale. Registration begins at 8:00 a.m. and the program begins at 9:00 a.m. Go to sullivanrenassiance.org for more information.