A window of opportunity

The recently released study on land use in Wayne County presents a mixed bag of challenges and opportunities. Its implications for the agricultural sector are troubling. But the fact that the loss of farmland has been to forest, not—so far—human development, leaves open a wide variety of options for Wayne County planners and residents in creating their own future.

As pointed out in our article in the September 6 issue, “Agriculture Land Use study confirms loss of dairy farms,” the most obvious implication of the loss of farmland to forest is that agriculture in Wayne County is indeed in dire shape. Moreover, the fact that farmland has been lost to forest rather than human development, while heartening from a conservationist’s point of view, underlines just how economically hopeless farming has become. When farmers sell land to developers, it doesn’t necessarily mean they can’t make a living farming. It just means that the land is worth more as a strip-mall or subdivision and that the farmer can take the proceeds and invest them more profitably in a non-agricultural activity.

But when farmland goes to forest, it doesn’t just mean that farming doesn’t pay as well as other alternatives. It means that it’s a loser.

This is particularly ironic given the fact that record wheat prices have been in the headlines for a couple of weeks now, as grain supplies fall below global demand for the seventh out of the last eight years. And, of course, with ethanol siphoning off corn supply, corn prices have been skyrocketing for months as well. Extreme climactic conditions—drought in Australia, Canada and the United States, excess moisture in Europe—combined with uncontrolled population growth, are creating a situation in which the human race is no longer able to feed itself. That fact has been masked because, so far, the difference has been taken out of existing grain stocks. But if the current trend continues, those stocks may some day be gone. For farmland to be falling out of production under such circumstances is a disgrace.

Of course, Wayne County is scarcely a major wheat or corn producing area. But it is an area in which farmers can raise dairy and beef cattle while producing at least part of the forage themselves. This is precisely what is needed in an era where the global food supply has become dependent on a handful of vast breadbaskets, the failure of any one of which—let alone several, as is occurring now—can have a devastating effect on food supplies around the globe. The preservation of so-called “marginal” farming areas like our own, that can help fill in the gaps when the major global breadbaskets fail, is essential if famine is to be avoided. And to keep them going, we need to do something to assure that farmers can continue to earn enough money to make a living, year in and year out, during times when there is abundant production in the breadbaskets as well as years in which there are shortages.

This year’s farm bill has been a disappointment in that regard. But our guess is that if global food production continues to fall, legislators and citizens alike may be willing to revisit their attitudes regarding farm pricing and the preservation of small farms in the not-too-distant future.

The fact that farmland has been lost to forest rather than development in Wayne County has a positive implication as well. It means that Wayne County’s options for the future are, for the moment, wide open. Instead of waiting around for construction to hit willy-nilly, Wayne County residents have an opportunity to look at their home pro-actively and decide what types of land use they want to promote. Would they like to bring land back into agricultural production? Could they take advantage of their growing forests to strenuously promote an outdoor-activity-based tourist industry?

One danger should be avoided, however: complacency. It is easy to look at the expansion of natural habitat and assume that Wayne will forever be immune to the pressures that have hit Pike and Sullivan counties. And, to be sure, the recent housing slump will no doubt prolong the period of time in which Wayne County may consider its options at leisure. But population pressures and our proximity to major metropolitan areas suggest that that period will not last indefinitely. Wayne County has an ideal, but brief, opportunity to envision and plan for the mix of farm, wild, residential and commercial land that it would like to host. They should seize it with both hands.

Dr. Punnybone

Raging Ball