A done deal?

A St. Regis Mohawk casino in Sullivan County has seemed to be pretty much a done deal since the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) delivered a finding of “No significant environmental impact” for the project late last year. Judging from our inbox, however, casino opponents in Sullivan County have not given up on the matter. And although the odds that the casino project will go through are enormous, the changing political and regulatory winds in Washington—indeed around the country—open up some slight chance that it may yet be blocked.

Governor Pataki did not sign a letter of concurrence before he left office—the next step in the process, which would be followed by the BIA taking the land in question into trust. But his replacement by Eliot Spitzer does not look likely to change the probability of its being signed. In fact, given some of the very ambitious programs Spitzer mentioned in his recent inaugural speech, he must be desperate for non-tax sources of revenue, such as a new casino would provide.

But Spitzer is also part of the Democratic wave that swept the country at all levels of government in November. Part of that wave of sentiment seems to be the perception that little people are being trampled on by an alliance of big business and government that rides roughshod over local rights and preferences. If Spitzer, who has been spoken of as a potential presidential candidate, really has such ambitions, he needs to be careful that any deals he signs off on are not perceived as part of that bullying alliance.

Given the fact that the Sullivan County Legislature has voted in favor of casinos, Spitzer could be forgiven for thinking that casinos had strong local support. But we believe that if he did a little homework, he would find that that is not necessarily the case. In a 2004 survey, asking residents to rate various businesses as ones they would like to see grow in the area, eight of the nine alternatives scored majority approval ratings, while casinos were supported by only 35.4 percent. A Times Herald-Record poll released about the same time, asked respondents directly if they supported casinos in the county. At that time, only 49.1 percent approved, down from the 61 and 62.9 percent in surveys from 1996 and 2001. Meanwhile, four townships have actually passed resolutions against bringing casinos into Sullivan County.

Spitzer also needs to worry about how he appears to a base that is environmentally oriented. The Natural Resources Defense Council, a national nongovernmental environmental protection organization, believes that the BIA finding of no significant impact actually violates the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). That’s because such a finding says that an in-depth study, such as would be required by an Environmental Impact Statement, is not necessary—surely a questionable finding for a project that would bring six million visitors a year into a county with a population of about 75,000. All this means that if Spitzer okays the project and severe environmental degradation ensues, his luster as a hero of the left will be seriously dimmed.

But beyond Spitzer, there is one more point at which the casino might get blocked: in Washington. Sentiment against the appropriation of non-tribal lands by Native Americans for the purpose of setting up gambling venues is encountering increasing resistance. Bills have been introduced into both the House and Senate forbidding such a practice—the latter spearheaded by John McCain, Republican heir presumptive. Although the Mohawk project is so far along it would probably be grandfathered in any law actually passed, there is at least some chance, as public and political sentiment shifts, that the prohibition might be made absolute.

In making its “No significant impact” statement, the BIA has ignored studies showing a disastrous impact on traffic and statements by the Sullivan County District Attorney regarding potential problems with law enforcement personnel and infrastructure. Both the legislature and the bureau have declined to do the kind of homework necessary to really understand the impact of what they plan to do. It demonstrates a criminal carelessness that we have seen all too often in government lately, in venues from New Orleans to Iraq. The November elections testify, in part, to an increasing public awareness of the importance of facts, careful planning and accountability. It’s a slim hope, but a hope nonetheless, that this consciousness will abort a project that could transform Sullivan County’s quality of life in the wrong direction.

Also in this issue:

• My view: Straightening out the record

Dr. Punnybone

Full Moon