Three historic floods, three years running

Is global warming part of the picture?

By FRITZ MAYER

UPPER DELAWARE VALLEY — According to the National Weather Service (NWS) the recent heavy rains resulted in a 500-year flood. The level of the Delaware River at Callicoon at 7:30 a.m. on Wednesday was 19.64 feet, while flood stage is 12 feet. The river was flowing at over 125,000 cubic feet per second. A release from NWS said, “The flow measured at this site corresponds to a 500-year flood recurrence interval, based on 30 years of data through 2005.”

The region experienced a 100-year flood on September 18, 2004 and another 100-year flood on April 1-2, 2005. Within three years, the region has endured severe weather events that might have been stretched out over 300 to 500 years.

Is global warming playing a role in this?

David Masur, director of PennEnvironment, a Pennsylvania advocacy group, said most scientists would not be willing to directly link any one storm to the effects of global warming. On the other hand, many scientists have been saying that global warming is likely to bring more extreme weather events.

Extremes in weather are becoming the norm in recent years, with the unusually warm winter just passed, juxtaposed to unusually cold winters the two previous years.

With weather extremes becoming ever more common, Masur said, many mainstream scientists are willing to publicly take the position that man-made global warming is part of the problem.

“Five or 10 years ago, there were a great many scientists who would openly dismiss global warming as some sort of left-wing conspiracy. Now, though, very few are willing to say that.”

He said the reality of global warming and its effect on climate and weather is also gaining credibility with oil companies such as the giant British Petroleum (PB). “When BP, a company that produces the products that create greenhouse gases, starts urging consumers to become aware of their ‘carbon footprint,’” it’s a clear sign of the changing acceptance of the theory of global warming.

The notion that global warming is a real danger is also gaining currency among conservative lawmakers.

The U.S. House last week approved legislation that will provide $1 million for a scientific study of population centers that may be at risk because of various changes linked to global warming.

And the U.S. Supreme Court is taking the matter seriously. On Monday, June 26, the court agreed to hear a case that may decide whether or not the Bush administration must regulate the greenhouse gases that cause global warming.