It’s all in the numbers

I have been reading with interest the flyers around town about the purported benefits of five casinos in Sullivan County. I looked up Census information on the Internet for the county, for the latest year available, 2000, and found some interesting facts myself:

Fact: The total year-round population of the county is 73,966.

Fact: There are 33,330 people in the labor force.

Fact: The unemployment figure is 9.2 percent of the labor force, a total of 3,065 people unemployed.

Fact: Average household size is 2.50 people, and average family size is 3.05 people.

Fact: There are 57,901 people 16 years and older, leaving 16,065 children under 16. Of those, 4,355 are under five years old, leaving at least 11,710 of school age (not counting 16-18 year olds still in school.)

The flyer says that 40,000 permanent jobs will be created. Now, assuming that all the unemployed people will get jobs at the casinos (an unrealistic assumption), that leaves a total of almost 37,000 vacant jobs. Where will the employees come from? From out of the county, of course. So our population suddenly increases to almost 111,000. That assumes that only the 37,000 workers will show up; of course, most of them will have families, further increasing the population. If every worker brings just one other person, it doubles our population.

The new residents will need housing. If only one in a family works for the casinos, another 37,000 housing units will be needed. Let’s be unrealistic — let’s assume that there will be two adults in each family working at the casinos, for 18,500 housing units. Where do these houses go? They replace fields and woods, creating more suburban sprawl in our rural community. That housing needs services, such as fire and police protection, garbage collection, etc. Several studies have documented that housing developments away from existing infrastructure actually cost more in services than they return in property taxes. So don’t count on property taxes being “stabilized.” How quickly will the landfill be filled up? How many more firefighters and police officers will be needed? How much water will be pulled out of the ground, and how much septic drain into the ground?

How many children will the new employees bring with them? Let’s say that each of the 18,500 families brings just one child. Another 18,500 children more than doubles the number of children currently living in the county. They will need school rooms, teachers, buses, administrators, books, etc. How many millions did the new high school in Lake Huntington cost?

We haven’t even factored in the summer tourists. The flyer claims we have the infrastructure to add five casinos. Have you ever sat in your car on the Midway on a Sunday afternoon in the summer? To that congestion, add at least 37,000 more residents and thousands of casino visitors.

How much will it cost for additional fire, police and school services? How much for getting rid of garbage when the landfill is prematurely closed? How many millions to close the landfill? How much for additional roads and road repairs? How much for social services resulting: from gambling addictions? What happens when we find that the supposed $75 million a year from the casinos doesn’t even come close to the costs? It will be way too late to get more from the casinos, and then property taxes will go through the roof.

Most important, what about the cost to our way of life? Sullivan County’s own internet home page talks about the “idyllic setting” and the “unsurpassed quality of life” that make Sullivan County a wonderful place to be and work. Poll after poll has put “beautiful rural lifestyle” at the top of the list for attracting people to the county. Casinos — especially five—will destroy the very reason people want to come to the county. We can develop in other ways—ways that build on our strengths and retain the beauty of the county—we don’t need this disaster.

Elizabeth McAllister

Monticello, NY