GLEN SPEY — Town, school district and county officials are afraid the south is going to rise again and it could cost Lumberland dearly, Supervisor Paul Brennan explained last week.

Brennan said representatives from the county, Eldred and Tri-Valley school districts and the towns of Lumberland, Bethel, Highland, Neversink and Forestburgh have met to begin preparing a defense against an anticipated assessment grievance from Southern Energy. Southern last year purchased the former Orange and Rockland Utilities Mongaup River hydroelectric works for some $16 million. The properties had been assessed at close to $90 million and the local taxing districts will bear the brunt, if the energy company appeals and a reduction of assessments is ordered.

And in the worst case scenario, Brennan told the Lumberland Town Board on March 8, the very future of Lumberland may be on the line. Lumberland has some $40 million in assessments on the property, an amount earlier estimated at about 20-percent of the town’s tax base. Right now, state assessment officials are "leaning" toward a reduction to $7 million, Brennan says and that’s bad. "It doesn’t take a mental giant to see what that would do," he said.

"In the worst case scenario, we’re going to go bankrupt…disappear," Brennan said envisioning a future of property owners abandoning an increasing tax load. "A lot of low-income people can’t afford to leave. You’ll have a trickle down until there’s nobody left," he prognosticated.

In response, the various taxing districts so far have adopted a strategy based on technical assessment criteria or how a property is assessed. Ordinarily, comparable sales determine assessments, but since utilities seldom change hands; replacement values less depreciation have been the rule in determining assessments.

Brennan says the town is particularly displeased with state assessment officials’ turnabout, as the town had worked at length with them and drew an apparent concurrence in the existing assessment. "The last few years the state has been agreeing with us, almost to the dollar," he said. "Now they say sale price. …They’re being very hypocritical," he added.

The taxing districts have agreed to stick with their replacement and depreciation method assessments and play for time. Because in time, Brennan said other communities and school districts in the New York City suburbs are going to start feeling the tax bite of the Southern purchase, which also included Con Edison properties as well as the O&R properties in Sullivan County. They’re looking for strength in numbers. "A lot of the others aren’t aware of it yet. We’re going to try and stall until they do know about it," he said.

Other towns in the county will get a spin-off problem. Highland has little property in the purchase, but they share the Eldred school district with Lumberland and will be forced to pick up part of the lost assessments eventually.

More immediately Brennan guessed that the recently agreed "certified" tax district effort, to stabilize school tax levies between the towns from year to year, would fall victim to the sale, as state officials will not now accept Lumberland’s Southern assessments in the mix.

In other business last week, the town board received an insurance claim based on auto damage from debris on Decker Road and heard a new round of road condition complaints from road residents. Brennan credited Highway Superintendent Charles Hallock’s efforts to improve the road, but said residents are still going to have to wait a while. "There’s no way the town in a position to do anything immediately," he said.

The board also agreed to a new second monthly meeting. Beginning in April, the board will hold a workshop meeting on the Monday before the regular second-Wednesday meeting, at 7:30 p.m., in the town office building.

They also: awarded a $2,000, federally funded summer river-edge trash collection contract to S&T Removals; named Harold Camocho to fill a vacancy as dog control officer; approved usage of the bicentennial logo as a permanent town logo; tabled a motion for purchase of a new copy machine; authorized a spring townwide cleanup with a $1,000 expense ceiling; and scheduled a 7:45 p.m. April 12 hearing for a local law that would authorize the code enforcement officer to establish a street naming and numbering system.