How casinos would help Sullivan County

Posted 8/21/12

By James B. Huntington

As a result of last November’s election, there will be one or two casinos, almost certainly as parts of large resorts, opening in the Catskills in 2016. If one or two end …

This item is available in full to subscribers.

Please log in to continue

Log in

How casinos would help Sullivan County

Posted

By James B. Huntington

As a result of last November’s election, there will be one or two casinos, almost certainly as parts of large resorts, opening in the Catskills in 2016. If one or two end up being built in Sullivan County, what effect might they have on jobs and joblessness here?

Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases county employment and unemployment data, which is not seasonally adjusted. As of March, Sullivan County had a civilian labor force of 32,224, with 29,512 employed and 2,712 unemployed, for an 8.4% unemployment rate.

If there were one casino resort built in Sullivan, how might these numbers change? Let us use the following assumptions:

- The resort would have 1,110 guest rooms, matching the EPR Properties proposal for the site of the Concord Resort Hotel in Kiamesha Lake.

- The number of permanent jobs at the resort, which would have a large casino and many other amenities, would equal the industry norm of one position per hotel guest room.

- Jobs elsewhere in the county would break even, with existing business decline offset by new opportunities created.

- 25% of resort jobs would be filled by new arrivals moving into the county.

- A total of 75% of resort jobs would be filled by county residents, including the new arrivals. (The remainder would go to commuters living outside the county.)

- All jobs formerly held by resort employees would be backfilled by otherwise unemployed people living in the county.

- Each new arrival would bring in one other adult, half of whom would join the labor force.

When we implement all of these, the Sullivan County civilian labor force increases by 416 people, and 832 more have jobs. That adjusts the numbers to a labor force of 32,640, with 30,344 employed, 2,296 unemployed, and 7.0% unemployment.

How about two such resorts? Continuing with the estimates above would bring our county’s labor force to 33,056, its people with jobs to 31,176, its unemployed to 1,880, and its jobless rate to 5.7%, a more dramatic improvement.

We can, of course, question the above assumptions. They could, however, prove more positive as well as more negative, as resort visitors could want more goods and services than expected from other providers. The improvement also does not even consider the number of temporary construction jobs, which, for each casino, would be in the hundreds if not the thousands, and would last for as long as two years. On the other side, it is also true that if Orange and Sullivan Counties got one casino apiece, the Sullivan one would probably need to be smaller, meaning its size, and benefits, would be reduced.

The state’s Gaming Facility Location Board will decide this fall which companies, and with it which locations, will be awarded rights to build and operate the casino resorts. If we can get one or, better still, two, Sullivan County may go from below average nationally in jobs to above it. That is what we voted for in November, and what we can expect.

How will casinos play out in Sullivan County? We are not sure, as there are disadvantages as well as advantages. One thing we know, though, is that they will give many more county residents the chance to work. That, whatever you think about casinos otherwise, is a good thing.

[James B. Huntington (choosingalastingcareer.com/biography_269.html), of Eldred, NY, is an economist and author who hosts a weekly radio program, Work Shift, on WJFF radio. He also writes the blog, Work’s New Age (worksnewage.blogspot.com/).

Comments

No comments on this item Please log in to comment by clicking here